Ligue 1 Β· Matchday 8

Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Paris Saint-Germain
WWWWL
2 - 0
HT 0-0
Lyon
WLWDW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Paris Saint-Germain win 71%, draw 17%, Lyon win 12%; the final score was 2:0.

Full time: Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Lyon. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Paris Saint-Germain" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultParis Saint-Germain71.4%most likely
Correct score2:09.0%#2 of 31
Total goals2 goals17.8%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.529.4%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/H19.7%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Paris Saint-Germain
71%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -2Miss
Lyon
49%
Correct scoreHit
2:1 / 2:0
18%
Total goalsMiss
3 / 4 goals
40%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
48%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
71%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Paris Saint-Germain (71%); expected goals Paris Saint-Germain 2.63 – 1.02 Lyon.
  • Goals look likely: 3.65 expected in total, 71% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (48%).
  • Last five: Paris Saint-Germain WWWWL (4 wins), Lyon WLWDW (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Paris Saint-Germain 71%Draw 17%Lyon 12%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Paris Saint-Germain
2.63
Expected goals Β· Lyon
1.02
Most likely score
2:1 (9%)
Half-time result
53% / 33% / 14%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Paris Saint-GermainDrawLyon
Home -315.6%14.9%69.6%
Home -2β‰ˆ30.4%20.3%49.3%
Home -150.7%20.7%28.6%
Home +188.2%7.7%4.1%
Home +295.9%3.0%1.1%
Home +398.9%0.9%0.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -2

Correct score

Paris Saint-Germain Β· Home
  • 1:06.4%
  • 2:09.0%
  • 2:19.2%
  • 3:07.9%
  • 3:18.0%
  • 3:24.1%
  • 4:05.2%
  • 4:15.3%
  • 4:22.7%
  • 5:02.7%
  • 5:12.8%
  • 5:21.4%
  • Other home win6.6%
Draw
  • 0:03.1%
  • 1:17.4%
  • 2:24.7%
  • 3:31.4%
  • Other draw0.3%
Lyon Β· Away
  • 0:12.2%
  • 0:21.3%
  • 1:23.5%
  • 0:30.5%
  • 1:31.2%
  • 2:31.6%
  • 0:40.1%
  • 1:40.3%
  • 2:40.4%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.5%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
3.1%
1
8.6%
2
17.8%
3
21.1%
4
19.2%
5
14.0%
6
8.5%
7+
7.7%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over88.4%70.6%49.5%30.3%
Under11.6%29.4%50.5%69.7%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
40.5%
Over, even
30.1%
Under, odd
8.6%
Under, even
20.8%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
59.7%
Both teams to score: No
40.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Paris Saint-Germain
36.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Lyon
7.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Paris Saint-Germain7.2%18.9%24.9%49.0%
Lyon36.2%36.8%18.7%8.3%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
47.7%
H/D
3.9%
H/A
1.1%
Draw
D/H
19.7%
D/D
8.9%
D/A
4.5%
Away
A/H
4.0%
A/D
3.9%
A/A
6.2%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris-based Ligue 1 club formed in 1970 and coached by Luis Enrique, who has led them to back-to-back Champions League titles in 2025 and 2026.

City
Paris, France
Stadium
Parc des Princes
Founded
1970
Head coach
Luis Enrique

Lyon

Lyon, nicknamed Les Gones, is a French club that won seven consecutive Ligue 1 titles from 2002 to 2008 and plays in Ligue 1.

City
DΓ©cines-Charpieu (Lyon), France
Stadium
Groupama Stadium (Parc Olympique Lyonnais)
Founded
1950

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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