Premier League Β· Matchday 8

Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Sunderland
LLLLD
0 - 0
HT 0-0
Leeds United
DLDWD

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sunderland win 36%, draw 30%, Leeds United win 34%; the final score was 0:0.

Full time: Sunderland 0-0 Leeds United. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Sunderland" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDraw30.2%#3 of 3
Correct score0:09.9%#2 of 31
Total goals0 goals9.9%#5 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.554.8%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/D19.0%#3 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Miss
Sunderland / Leeds United
70%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
Leeds United
64%
Correct scoreHit
1:1 / 0:0
24%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
49%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
21%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Under
55%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Sunderland 36%, draw 30%, Leeds United 34% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.49 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 45%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (21%).
  • Last five: Sunderland LLLLD (0 wins), Leeds United DLDWD (1 wins).
  • A 30% draw probability is on the high side β€” the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Sunderland 36%Draw 30%Leeds United 34%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Sunderland
1.26
Expected goals Β· Leeds United
1.23
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
28% / 45% / 27%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2SunderlandDrawLeeds United
Home -31.5%4.0%94.4%
Home -25.6%10.7%83.7%
Home -1β‰ˆ16.3%19.4%64.3%
Home +166.0%18.8%15.2%
Home +284.8%10.2%5.1%
Home +394.9%3.7%1.4%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Sunderland Β· Home
  • 1:08.9%
  • 2:06.6%
  • 2:18.1%
  • 3:02.8%
  • 3:13.4%
  • 3:22.1%
  • 4:00.9%
  • 4:11.1%
  • 4:20.7%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.3%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.5%
Draw
  • 0:09.9%
  • 1:114.4%
  • 2:25.0%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Leeds United Β· Away
  • 0:18.6%
  • 0:26.3%
  • 1:27.9%
  • 0:32.6%
  • 1:33.2%
  • 2:32.0%
  • 0:40.8%
  • 1:41.0%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.2%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.5%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
9.9%
1
17.6%
2
27.3%
3
21.3%
4
13.2%
5
6.6%
6
2.7%
7+
1.4%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over72.5%45.2%23.9%10.7%
Under27.5%54.8%76.1%89.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
28.9%
Over, even
16.3%
Under, odd
17.6%
Under, even
37.2%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
52.2%
Both teams to score: No
47.8%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Sunderland
29.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Leeds United
28.4%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Sunderland28.4%35.7%22.5%13.4%
Leeds United29.4%36.0%22.0%12.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
20.6%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
1.9%
Draw
D/H
13.2%
D/D
19.0%
D/A
12.7%
Away
A/H
1.9%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
19.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Sunderland

Nicknamed the Black Cats, Sunderland are a historic north-east England club who returned to the Premier League in 2025–26 and finished 7th, earning a place in European competition.

City
Sunderland, England
Stadium
Stadium of Light
Founded
1879
Head coach
RΓ©gis Le Bris

Leeds United

Leeds United are a historic Yorkshire club, nicknamed the Whites, who play at Elland Road in the Premier League.

City
Leeds, England
Stadium
Elland Road
Founded
1919
Head coach
Daniel Farke

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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