K League 1 Β· Matchday 33

Incheon United vs Jeju SK FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Incheon United
DWDDL
3 - 1
HT 0-0
Jeju SK FC
LLWDW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Incheon United win 35%, draw 32%, Jeju SK FC win 32%; the final score was 3:1.

Full time: Incheon United 3-1 Jeju SK FC. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Incheon United" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultIncheon United35.4%most likely
Correct score3:12.9%#10 of 31
Total goals4 goals11.1%#5 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.538.5%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/H14.8%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Incheon United / Jeju SK FC
68%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
Jeju SK FC
65%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 0:0
27%
Total goalsMiss
1 / 2 goals
49%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
D/D
22%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Under
62%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Incheon United 35%, draw 32%, Jeju SK FC 32% β€” no clear lean from the model.
  • A tight game is the base case: 2.23 goals expected, 62% for under 2.5.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (15%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is D/D (22%).
  • Last five: Incheon United DWDDL (1 wins), Jeju SK FC LLWDW (2 wins).
  • A 32% draw probability is on the high side β€” the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Incheon United 35%Draw 32%Jeju SK FC 32%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Incheon United
1.14
Expected goals Β· Jeju SK FC
1.08
Most likely score
1:1 (15%)
Half-time result
26% / 50% / 24%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Incheon UnitedDrawJeju SK FC
Home -31.2%3.6%95.1%
Home -24.9%10.5%84.7%
Home -1β‰ˆ15.3%20.1%64.6%
Home +167.5%19.0%13.5%
Home +286.5%9.4%4.1%
Home +395.9%3.1%1.0%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Incheon United Β· Home
  • 1:010.7%
  • 2:07.0%
  • 2:17.6%
  • 3:02.7%
  • 3:12.9%
  • 3:21.6%
  • 4:00.8%
  • 4:10.8%
  • 4:20.5%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.2%
  • 5:20.1%
  • Other home win0.3%
Draw
  • 0:012.4%
  • 1:115.0%
  • 2:24.1%
  • 3:30.6%
  • Other draw0.0%
Jeju SK FC Β· Away
  • 0:110.1%
  • 0:26.3%
  • 1:27.2%
  • 0:32.3%
  • 1:32.6%
  • 2:31.5%
  • 0:40.6%
  • 1:40.7%
  • 2:40.4%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
12.4%
1
20.8%
2
28.3%
3
19.9%
4
11.1%
5
4.9%
6
1.8%
7+
0.8%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over66.8%38.5%18.6%7.6%
Under33.2%61.5%81.4%92.4%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
25.4%
Over, even
13.1%
Under, odd
20.8%
Under, even
40.7%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
46.7%
Both teams to score: No
53.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Incheon United
33.8%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Jeju SK FC
31.9%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Incheon United31.9%36.4%20.8%10.9%
Jeju SK FC33.8%36.7%19.9%9.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
18.9%
H/D
5.2%
H/A
1.6%
Draw
D/H
14.8%
D/D
21.7%
D/A
13.7%
Away
A/H
1.8%
A/D
5.2%
A/A
17.1%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Incheon United

Incheon's fan-owned-style community club won the 2025 K League 2 title under Yoon Jeong-hwan to return to the top flight, and it has spent 2026 in the K League 1 upper-middle table.

City
Incheon, South Korea
Stadium
Incheon Football Stadium
Founded
2003
Head coach
Yoon Jeong-hwan

Jeju SK FC

Formerly known as Jeju United and rebranded as Jeju SK in 2025, the SK Group-backed island club finished 11th in K League 1 in 2025.

City
Seogwipo (Jeju Island), South Korea
Stadium
Jeju World Cup Stadium
Founded
1982
Head coach
SΓ©rgio Costa

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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