K League 1 Β· Matchday 33

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
DLWDD
1 - 2
HT 0-0
Daejeon Hana Citizen
WWDDW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 30%, draw 28%, Daejeon Hana Citizen win 42%; the final score was 1:2.

Full time: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daejeon Hana Citizen. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Daejeon Hana Citizen" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDaejeon Hana Citizen41.9%most likely
Correct score1:29.0%#2 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.1%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.551.7%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/A15.7%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Gimcheon Sangmu FC / Daejeon Hana Citizen
72%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
58%
Correct scoreHit
1:1 / 1:2
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
24%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
52%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Daejeon Hana Citizen (42%); expected goals Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.24 – 1.50 Daejeon Hana Citizen.
  • 2.74 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (24%).
  • Last five: Gimcheon Sangmu FC DLWDD (1 wins), Daejeon Hana Citizen WWDDW (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%Draw 28%Daejeon Hana Citizen 42%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.24
Expected goals Β· Daejeon Hana Citizen
1.50
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
24% / 44% / 31%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Gimcheon Sangmu FCDrawDaejeon Hana Citizen
Home -31.2%3.2%95.6%
Home -24.4%8.8%86.8%
Home -113.2%16.7%70.1%
Home +1β‰ˆ58.1%20.5%21.4%
Home +278.6%13.0%8.4%
Home +391.6%5.7%2.7%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Gimcheon Sangmu FC Β· Home
  • 1:06.5%
  • 2:04.9%
  • 2:17.4%
  • 3:02.0%
  • 3:13.1%
  • 3:22.3%
  • 4:00.6%
  • 4:11.0%
  • 4:20.7%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.2%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.7%
Draw
  • 0:07.9%
  • 1:113.4%
  • 2:25.6%
  • 3:31.2%
  • Other draw0.1%
Daejeon Hana Citizen Β· Away
  • 0:18.2%
  • 0:27.3%
  • 1:29.0%
  • 0:33.6%
  • 1:34.5%
  • 2:32.8%
  • 0:41.4%
  • 1:41.7%
  • 2:41.1%
  • 0:50.4%
  • 1:50.5%
  • 2:50.3%
  • Other away win1.1%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.9%
1
14.8%
2
25.7%
3
22.1%
4
15.2%
5
8.3%
6
3.8%
7+
2.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over77.3%51.7%29.5%14.3%
Under22.7%48.3%70.5%85.7%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
32.1%
Over, even
19.5%
Under, odd
14.8%
Under, even
33.5%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
56.7%
Both teams to score: No
43.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Gimcheon Sangmu FC
22.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Daejeon Hana Citizen
29.0%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Gimcheon Sangmu FC29.0%35.9%22.2%12.9%
Daejeon Hana Citizen22.2%33.4%25.1%19.2%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
16.1%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
2.6%
Draw
D/H
11.8%
D/D
17.0%
D/A
15.7%
Away
A/H
2.0%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
23.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

The military-affiliated club of the Korea Armed Forces Athletic Corps, staffed by K League players during their national service. It won the 2023 K League 2 title and finished third in K League 1 in 2024.

City
Gimcheon, South Korea
Stadium
Gimcheon Stadium
Founded
1984
Head coach
Joo Seung-jin

Daejeon Hana Citizen

Citizen-owned club from Daejeon that plays in K League 1 and the AFC Champions League Elite.

City
Daejeon, South Korea
Stadium
Daejeon World Cup Stadium
Founded
1997
Head coach
Hwang Sun-hong

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

Market & China Sports Lottery guide β†’ Β· League page: K League 1 β†’