Conference League · Matchday 3
FC Twente vs Pafos prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Twente win 72%, draw 18%, Pafos win 10%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: FC Twente 3-1 Pafos. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "FC Twente" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | FC Twente | 71.9% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 7.5% | #6 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 17.7% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 3.2% | #8 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- FC Twente
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- FC Twente
- 49%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:0 / 1:0
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 48%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 62%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours FC Twente (72%); expected goals FC Twente 2.38 – 0.80 Pafos.
- Goals look likely: 3.18 expected in total, 62% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (48%).
- Last five: FC Twente WWWLW (4 wins), Pafos DLDDD (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · FC Twente
- 2.38
- Expected goals · Pafos
- 0.80
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 53% / 35% / 12%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Twente | Draw | Pafos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 13.5% | 14.7% | 71.8% |
| Home -2 | 28.2% | 21.2% | 50.5% |
| Home -1≈ | 49.5% | 22.5% | 28.1% |
| Home +1 | 89.5% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Home +2 | 96.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Home +3 | 99.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.5%
- 2:011.7%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:09.3%
- 3:17.5%
- 3:23.0%
- 4:05.5%
- 4:14.4%
- 4:21.8%
- 5:02.6%
- 5:12.1%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win4.2%
- 0:04.6%
- 1:18.3%
- 2:23.8%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:12.9%
- 0:21.3%
- 1:23.2%
- 0:30.4%
- 1:30.9%
- 2:31.0%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.2%
- 2:40.2%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83.0% | 61.6% | 39.3% | 21.6% |
| Under | 17.0% | 38.4% | 60.7% | 78.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.7%
- Over, even
- 24.9%
- Under, odd
- 12.4%
- Under, even
- 26.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 50.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 49.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · FC Twente
- 44.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Pafos
- 9.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente | 9.3% | 22.1% | 26.2% | 42.4% |
| Pafos | 44.8% | 36.0% | 14.5% | 4.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 48.4% | H/D 3.6% | H/A 0.8% |
| Draw | D/H 20.3% | D/D 10.4% | D/A 4.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.2% | A/D 3.6% | A/A 5.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
FC Twente
Enschede-based Dutch club formed in 1965 and Eredivisie champions in 2010, which finished 4th in the Eredivisie in 2025–26.
- City
- Enschede, Netherlands
- Stadium
- De Grolsch Veste
- Founded
- 1965
Pafos
A Paphos-based club founded in 2014, they won the Cypriot First Division in 2024–25 and now play regularly in European competition.
- City
- Paphos, Cyprus
- Stadium
- Stelios Kyriakides Stadium
- Founded
- 2014
- Head coach
- Ricardo Sá Pinto
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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