Europa League · Matchday 4
Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sturm Graz win 42%, draw 26%, Celje win 32%; the final score was 2:3.
Full time: Sturm Graz 2-3 Celje. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Sturm Graz" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Celje | 31.6% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:3 | 2.4% | #14 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 8.5% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 18.0% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Sturm Graz / Celje
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Celje
- 58%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 25%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Sturm Graz 42%, draw 26%, Celje 32% — no clear lean from the model.
- 2.77 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (25%).
- Last five: Sturm Graz WLDLL (1 wins), Celje DLLDD (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Sturm Graz
- 1.50
- Expected goals · Celje
- 1.27
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 32% / 42% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Sturm Graz | Draw | Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.6% | 5.6% | 91.8% |
| Home -2 | 8.2% | 12.7% | 79.1% |
| Home -1≈ | 20.9% | 21.1% | 58.0% |
| Home +1 | 68.4% | 17.8% | 13.8% |
| Home +2 | 86.2% | 9.1% | 4.7% |
| Home +3 | 95.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.8%
- 2:07.0%
- 2:19.0%
- 3:03.5%
- 3:14.5%
- 3:22.8%
- 4:01.3%
- 4:11.7%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:06.8%
- 1:112.5%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:17.3%
- 0:25.1%
- 1:27.6%
- 0:32.1%
- 1:33.2%
- 2:32.4%
- 0:40.7%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.0% | 52.4% | 30.2% | 14.8% |
| Under | 23.0% | 47.6% | 69.8% | 85.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.5%
- Over, even
- 19.9%
- Under, odd
- 16.1%
- Under, even
- 31.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Sturm Graz
- 28.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Celje
- 22.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 22.3% | 33.5% | 25.1% | 19.2% |
| Celje | 28.0% | 35.7% | 22.7% | 13.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 24.9% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 14.6% | D/D 15.6% | D/A 11.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.5% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 18.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Sturm Graz
Nicknamed "Die Schwoazn" (The Blacks), Sturm Graz are one of Austria's biggest clubs, five-time Austrian Bundesliga champions (most recently 2024 and 2025), and are coached by Fabio Ingolitsch.
- City
- Graz, Austria
- Stadium
- Merkur Arena (Stadion Graz-Liebenau)
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Fabio Ingolitsch
Celje
Celje are a Slovenian PrvaLiga club from the city of Celje, regular contenders in the domestic top flight who have played in UEFA competitions in recent seasons and were 6th in the league in October 2026.
- City
- Celje, Slovenia
- Stadium
- Stadion Z'dežele
- Founded
- 1919
- Head coach
- Zoran Zeljković
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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