Europa League · Matchday 4
Benfica vs Lech Poznań prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Benfica win 87%, draw 9%, Lech Poznań win 4%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Benfica 3-1 Lech Poznań. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Benfica" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Benfica | 87.2% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 7.3% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 19.5% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 65.1% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Benfica
- 87%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -3Hit
- Lech Poznań
- 50%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 3:0 / 2:0
- 24%
- Total goalsHit
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 65%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 73%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Benfica (87%); expected goals Benfica 3.23 – 0.59 Lech Poznań.
- Goals look likely: 3.82 expected in total, 73% for over 2.5 and 43% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 3:0 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (65%).
- Last five: Benfica WWWWW (5 wins), Lech Poznań DLLDW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Benfica
- 3.23
- Expected goals · Lech Poznań
- 0.59
- Most likely score
- 3:0 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 67% / 26% / 7%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Benfica | Draw | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3≈ | 30.9% | 19.4% | 49.6% |
| Home -2 | 50.4% | 20.7% | 29.0% |
| Home -1 | 71.0% | 16.1% | 12.8% |
| Home +1 | 96.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Home +2 | 99.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Home +3 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home -3
Correct score
- 1:06.9%
- 2:011.4%
- 2:16.7%
- 3:012.3%
- 3:17.3%
- 3:22.1%
- 4:010.0%
- 4:15.9%
- 4:21.7%
- 5:06.4%
- 5:13.8%
- 5:21.1%
- Other home win11.5%
- 0:02.4%
- 1:14.4%
- 2:22.0%
- 3:30.4%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:11.1%
- 0:20.4%
- 1:21.2%
- 0:30.1%
- 1:30.2%
- 2:30.4%
- 0:40.0%
- 1:40.0%
- 2:40.1%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 89.7% | 73.5% | 53.1% | 33.6% |
| Under | 10.3% | 26.5% | 46.9% | 66.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 41.6%
- Over, even
- 31.9%
- Under, odd
- 7.9%
- Under, even
- 18.6%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 43.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 57.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Benfica
- 55.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lech Poznań
- 3.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.9% | 12.8% | 20.6% | 62.7% |
| Lech Poznań | 55.4% | 32.7% | 9.7% | 2.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 65.1% | H/D 1.9% | H/A 0.3% |
| Draw | D/H 19.3% | D/D 5.4% | D/A 1.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 1.9% | A/A 1.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Benfica
Lisbon-based Portuguese giant and one of the "Big Three" in the Primeira Liga, known for its youth development and attacking football; it finished third in the league last season and is now coached by Marco Silva.
- City
- Lisbon, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio da Luz
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Marco Silva
Lech Poznań
Nicknamed Kolejorz (The Railwayman), Lech is a Poznań-based club and the reigning Polish Ekstraklasa champion after two consecutive league titles, and it entered the 2026–27 Champions League at the second qualifying round.
- City
- Poznań, Poland
- Stadium
- Enea Stadion
- Founded
- 1922
- Head coach
- Niels Frederiksen
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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