Europa League Β· Matchday 4

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Sparta Praha
LDWLW
1 - 3
HT 1-0
Bournemouth
WWWWW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-05

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sparta Praha win 20%, draw 23%, Bournemouth win 57%; the final score was 1:3.

Full time: Sparta Praha 1-3 Bournemouth. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Bournemouth" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultBournemouth56.9%most likely
Correct score1:36.2%#5 of 31
Total goals4 goals16.2%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.555.3%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/A3.0%#8 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Bournemouth
57%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
Sparta Praha
43%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:2
21%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
46%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
36%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
55%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Bournemouth (57%); expected goals Sparta Praha 1.02 – 1.88 Bournemouth.
  • 2.89 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 55%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (36%).
  • Last five: Sparta Praha LDWLW (2 wins), Bournemouth WWWWW (5 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Sparta Praha 20%Draw 23%Bournemouth 57%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Sparta Praha
1.02
Expected goals Β· Bournemouth
1.88
Most likely score
1:1 (11%)
Half-time result
19% / 40% / 42%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Sparta PrahaDrawBournemouth
Home -30.4%1.5%98.0%
Home -22.0%5.2%92.8%
Home -17.2%12.5%80.4%
Home +1β‰ˆ43.1%23.5%33.5%
Home +266.5%17.6%15.8%
Home +384.2%9.6%6.2%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Sparta Praha Β· Home
  • 1:05.1%
  • 2:02.9%
  • 2:15.4%
  • 3:01.0%
  • 3:11.8%
  • 3:21.7%
  • 4:00.2%
  • 4:10.5%
  • 4:20.4%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.1%
  • 5:20.1%
  • Other home win0.4%
Draw
  • 0:06.1%
  • 1:111.1%
  • 2:25.0%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.1%
Bournemouth Β· Away
  • 0:19.9%
  • 0:29.7%
  • 1:29.9%
  • 0:36.1%
  • 1:36.2%
  • 2:33.2%
  • 0:42.9%
  • 1:42.9%
  • 2:41.5%
  • 0:51.1%
  • 1:51.1%
  • 2:50.6%
  • Other away win2.0%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.1%
1
15.0%
2
23.7%
3
22.4%
4
16.2%
5
9.4%
6
4.5%
7+
2.8%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over79.0%55.3%32.9%16.7%
Under21.0%44.7%67.1%83.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
33.8%
Over, even
21.4%
Under, odd
15.0%
Under, even
29.8%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
54.6%
Both teams to score: No
45.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Sparta Praha
15.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Bournemouth
36.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Sparta Praha36.2%36.8%18.7%8.4%
Bournemouth15.3%28.7%27.0%29.0%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
10.7%
H/D
4.8%
H/A
3.0%
Draw
D/H
7.6%
D/D
13.8%
D/A
18.2%
Away
A/H
1.4%
A/D
4.8%
A/A
35.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Sparta Praha

Prague's red-shirted "Iron Sparta" are the Czech Republic's most decorated club with a record 38 league titles, and they finished second in the 2025-26 Czech league.

City
Prague, Czech Republic
Stadium
epet ARENA (LetnΓ‘ Stadium)
Founded
1893
Head coach
Brian Priske

Bournemouth

A south-coast club nicknamed the Cherries, Bournemouth finished sixth in 2025–26, their best-ever top-flight finish, and are playing in the Europa League for the first time in 2026–27 under Marco Rose.

City
Bournemouth, England
Stadium
Vitality Stadium
Founded
1899
Head coach
Marco Rose

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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