Conference League · Matchday 3
Riga FC vs FK Jablonec prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Riga FC win 41%, draw 27%, FK Jablonec win 33%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Riga FC 1-1 FK Jablonec. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Riga FC" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 26.5% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 12.6% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.6% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.7% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/D | 5.4% | #6 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Riga FC / FK Jablonec
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- FK Jablonec
- 59%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Riga FC 41%, draw 27%, FK Jablonec 33% — no clear lean from the model.
- 2.77 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: Riga FC DDWDD (1 wins), FK Jablonec DLWLW (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Riga FC
- 1.47
- Expected goals · FK Jablonec
- 1.30
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 32% / 42% / 27%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Riga FC | Draw | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.4% | 5.3% | 92.3% |
| Home -2 | 7.7% | 12.3% | 80.0% |
| Home -1≈ | 20.0% | 20.7% | 59.3% |
| Home +1 | 67.3% | 18.2% | 14.5% |
| Home +2 | 85.5% | 9.5% | 5.0% |
| Home +3 | 95.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.6%
- 2:06.8%
- 2:18.8%
- 3:03.3%
- 3:14.3%
- 3:22.8%
- 4:01.2%
- 4:11.6%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.0%
- 0:06.9%
- 1:112.6%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:17.5%
- 0:25.3%
- 1:27.8%
- 0:32.3%
- 1:33.4%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.7%
- 1:41.1%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.0% | 52.3% | 30.1% | 14.8% |
| Under | 23.0% | 47.7% | 69.9% | 85.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.4%
- Over, even
- 19.9%
- Under, odd
- 16.2%
- Under, even
- 31.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Riga FC
- 27.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · FK Jablonec
- 22.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga FC | 22.9% | 33.8% | 24.9% | 18.4% |
| FK Jablonec | 27.3% | 35.5% | 23.0% | 14.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 24.0% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 14.3% | D/D 15.6% | D/A 11.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.5% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 18.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Riga FC
A Riga-based club founded in 2014 that has won the Latvian Virslīga four times and regularly plays in UEFA qualifying rounds and the Conference League.
- City
- Riga, Latvia
- Stadium
- Skonto Stadium
- Founded
- 2014
- Head coach
- Adrián Guľa
FK Jablonec
A Czech First League club from northern Bohemia, two-time Czech Cup winners and regular European qualifiers.
- City
- Jablonec nad Nisou, Czech Republic
- Stadium
- Stadion Střelnice
- Founded
- 1945
- Head coach
- Luboš Kozel
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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