Europa League · Matchday 4
Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Real Sociedad win 35%, draw 27%, Lyon win 39%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Real Sociedad 1-1 Lyon. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Lyon" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 26.6% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 12.6% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.7% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.8% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/D | 5.5% | #7 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Real Sociedad / Lyon
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Real Sociedad
- 61%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 21%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Real Sociedad 35%, draw 27%, Lyon 39% — no clear lean from the model.
- 2.76 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (23%).
- Last five: Real Sociedad LWWWD (3 wins), Lyon WLLWW (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Real Sociedad
- 1.34
- Expected goals · Lyon
- 1.43
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 28% / 42% / 30%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Real Sociedad | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.6% | 4.0% | 94.4% |
| Home -2 | 5.6% | 10.2% | 84.3% |
| Home -1 | 15.7% | 18.9% | 65.4% |
| Home +1≈ | 61.2% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| Home +2 | 81.4% | 11.6% | 7.0% |
| Home +3 | 93.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:07.8%
- 2:05.6%
- 2:18.0%
- 3:02.5%
- 3:13.6%
- 3:22.6%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.2%
- 4:20.9%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.8%
- 0:06.9%
- 1:112.6%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.4%
- 0:26.4%
- 1:28.6%
- 0:33.1%
- 1:34.1%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:41.1%
- 1:41.5%
- 2:41.0%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76.9% | 52.2% | 30.0% | 14.7% |
| Under | 23.1% | 47.8% | 70.0% | 85.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.4%
- Over, even
- 19.8%
- Under, odd
- 16.2%
- Under, even
- 31.6%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Real Sociedad
- 24.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lyon
- 26.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 26.3% | 35.1% | 23.5% | 15.1% |
| Lyon | 24.0% | 34.2% | 24.4% | 17.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 19.9% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.4% |
| Draw | D/H 12.5% | D/D 15.7% | D/A 13.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.2% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 22.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Real Sociedad
A Basque club from San Sebastián known for its youth academy and possession-based football, it won the 2025–26 Copa del Rey under Pellegrino Matarazzo.
- City
- San Sebastián (Donostia), Spain
- Stadium
- Reale Arena (Anoeta)
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Pellegrino Matarazzo
Lyon
Lyon, nicknamed Les Gones, is a French club that won seven consecutive Ligue 1 titles from 2002 to 2008 and plays in Ligue 1.
- City
- Décines-Charpieu (Lyon), France
- Stadium
- Groupama Stadium (Parc Olympique Lyonnais)
- Founded
- 1950
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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