Conference League Β· Matchday 3
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Panathinaikos win 70%, draw 18%, CSKA Sofia win 11%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Panathinaikos 2-1 CSKA Sofia. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Panathinaikos" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Panathinaikos | 70.2% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 9.6% | #3 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.3% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 20.2% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Panathinaikos
- 70%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Panathinaikos
- 47%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:0 / 1:0
- 21%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 47%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 61%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Panathinaikos (70%); expected goals Panathinaikos 2.31 β 0.83 CSKA Sofia.
- Goals look likely: 3.13 expected in total, 61% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (47%).
- Last five: Panathinaikos WWDDD (2 wins), CSKA Sofia DLLLL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· Panathinaikos
- 2.31
- Expected goals Β· CSKA Sofia
- 0.83
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 51% / 36% / 13%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Panathinaikos | Draw | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 12.4% | 14.1% | 73.6% |
| Home -2 | 26.4% | 21.0% | 52.6% |
| Home -1β | 47.4% | 22.8% | 29.8% |
| Home +1 | 88.6% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| Home +2 | 96.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Home +3 | 99.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.6%
- 2:011.6%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:08.9%
- 3:17.4%
- 3:23.0%
- 4:05.1%
- 4:14.3%
- 4:21.8%
- 5:02.4%
- 5:12.0%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win3.8%
- 0:04.8%
- 1:18.7%
- 2:24.0%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:13.2%
- 0:21.5%
- 1:23.4%
- 0:30.4%
- 1:30.9%
- 2:31.1%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.2%
- 2:40.2%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.4% | 60.6% | 38.3% | 20.8% |
| Under | 17.6% | 39.4% | 61.7% | 79.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.3%
- Over, even
- 24.4%
- Under, odd
- 12.8%
- Under, even
- 26.6%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 51.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 48.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Panathinaikos
- 43.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· CSKA Sofia
- 10.0%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 10.0% | 23.0% | 26.5% | 40.6% |
| CSKA Sofia | 43.7% | 36.2% | 15.0% | 5.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 46.8% | H/D 3.8% | H/A 0.8% |
| Draw | D/H 20.2% | D/D 10.9% | D/A 4.5% |
| Away | A/H 3.2% | A/D 3.8% | A/A 6.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Panathinaikos
One of Greece's most successful clubs, known as the Greens (Trifylli), Panathinaikos play in the Super League Greece under Danish coach Jacob Neestrup.
- City
- Athens, Greece
- Stadium
- Athens Olympic Stadium (Spyros Louis)
- Founded
- 1908
- Head coach
- Jacob Neestrup
CSKA Sofia
Bulgaria's most decorated club, a record 31-time league champion from the army sports society, and a regular in European qualifying for the Europa and Conference Leagues.
- City
- Sofia, Bulgaria
- Stadium
- Stadion Balgarska Armia
- Founded
- 1948
- Head coach
- Markus Gisdol
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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