Conference League · Matchday 3

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

FC Lugano
WWDWD
3 - 0
HT 3-0
Kauno Žalgiris
LLWLL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Lugano win 67%, draw 20%, Kauno Žalgiris win 13%; the final score was 3:0.

Full time: FC Lugano 3-0 Kauno Žalgiris. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "FC Lugano" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultFC Lugano67.2%most likely
Correct score3:08.2%#5 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.4%most likely
Over/under 2.5Over 2.559.2%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H44.1%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
FC Lugano
67%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
FC Lugano
44%
Correct scoreMiss
2:0 / 1:0
21%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
45%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
44%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
59%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours FC Lugano (67%); expected goals FC Lugano 2.20 – 0.87 Kauno Žalgiris.
  • Goals look likely: 3.07 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 2:0 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (44%).
  • Last five: FC Lugano WWDWD (3 wins), Kauno Žalgiris LLWLL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

FC Lugano 67%Draw 20%Kauno Žalgiris 13%

No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals · FC Lugano
2.20
Expected goals · Kauno Žalgiris
0.87
Most likely score
2:0 (11%)
Half-time result
49% / 37% / 14%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2FC LuganoDrawKauno Žalgiris
Home -310.6%13.0%76.4%
Home -223.6%20.4%56.0%
Home -1≈44.0%23.2%32.8%
Home +186.9%8.9%4.2%
Home +295.8%3.2%1.0%
Home +399.0%0.8%0.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

FC Lugano · Home
  • 1:09.8%
  • 2:011.3%
  • 2:19.8%
  • 3:08.2%
  • 3:17.2%
  • 3:23.1%
  • 4:04.5%
  • 4:13.9%
  • 4:21.7%
  • 5:02.0%
  • 5:11.7%
  • 5:20.8%
  • Other home win3.2%
Draw
  • 0:05.1%
  • 1:19.3%
  • 2:24.2%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Kauno Žalgiris · Away
  • 0:13.6%
  • 0:21.8%
  • 1:23.9%
  • 0:30.5%
  • 1:31.1%
  • 2:31.2%
  • 0:40.1%
  • 1:40.2%
  • 2:40.3%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.0%
  • 2:50.0%
  • Other away win0.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.1%
1
13.4%
2
22.3%
3
22.4%
4
17.2%
5
10.5%
6
5.4%
7+
3.7%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over81.5%59.2%36.8%19.6%
Under18.5%40.8%63.2%80.4%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
35.6%
Over, even
23.5%
Under, odd
13.4%
Under, even
27.4%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
52.0%
Both teams to score: No
48.0%
Clean-sheet probability · FC Lugano
42.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Kauno Žalgiris
11.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
FC Lugano11.1%24.4%26.8%37.7%
Kauno Žalgiris42.0%36.4%15.8%5.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
44.1%
H/D
4.0%
H/A
0.9%
Draw
D/H
19.9%
D/D
11.6%
D/A
5.2%
Away
A/H
3.2%
A/D
4.0%
A/A
7.0%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

FC Lugano

A Swiss Super League club from the Ticino region, owned by Joe Mansueto, that finished 3rd in 2025–26 and has moved into the new AIL Arena.

City
Lugano, Switzerland
Stadium
AIL Arena
Founded
1908
Head coach
Mattia Croci-Torti

Kauno Žalgiris

Kaunas-based club that won its first Lithuanian league title in 2025 and has since been a regular in European qualifying and Conference League competition.

City
Kaunas, Lithuania
Stadium
S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas (Darius and Girėnas Stadium)
Founded
2004
Head coach
Željko Sopić

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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