Europa League · Matchday 4

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Celta Vigo
LDWWL
1 - 2
HT 1-1
Union St. Gilloise
WDWDD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Celta Vigo win 41%, draw 27%, Union St. Gilloise win 32%; the final score was 1:2.

Full time: Celta Vigo 1-2 Union St. Gilloise. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Celta Vigo" — missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultUnion St. Gilloise32.4%#2 of 3
Correct score1:27.7%#4 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.2%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.552.3%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/A11.8%#5 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Celta Vigo / Union St. Gilloise
73%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
Union St. Gilloise
59%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
21%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
24%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
52%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Celta Vigo 41%, draw 27%, Union St. Gilloise 32% — no clear lean from the model.
  • 2.77 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
  • Last five: Celta Vigo LDWWL (2 wins), Union St. Gilloise WDWDD (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Celta Vigo 41%Draw 27%Union St. Gilloise 32%

No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals · Celta Vigo
1.48
Expected goals · Union St. Gilloise
1.29
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
32% / 42% / 26%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Celta VigoDrawUnion St. Gilloise
Home -32.5%5.3%92.2%
Home -27.8%12.4%79.8%
Home -1≈20.2%20.8%58.9%
Home +167.6%18.1%14.3%
Home +285.7%9.4%4.9%
Home +395.1%3.5%1.4%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Celta Vigo · Home
  • 1:08.7%
  • 2:06.9%
  • 2:18.9%
  • 3:03.4%
  • 3:14.4%
  • 3:22.8%
  • 4:01.3%
  • 4:11.6%
  • 4:21.0%
  • 5:00.4%
  • 5:10.5%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win1.0%
Draw
  • 0:06.9%
  • 1:112.6%
  • 2:25.7%
  • 3:31.2%
  • Other draw0.2%
Union St. Gilloise · Away
  • 0:17.5%
  • 0:25.2%
  • 1:27.7%
  • 0:32.2%
  • 1:33.3%
  • 2:32.5%
  • 0:40.7%
  • 1:41.1%
  • 2:40.8%
  • 0:50.2%
  • 1:50.3%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.7%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.9%
1
16.2%
2
24.6%
3
22.2%
4
15.4%
5
8.5%
6
3.9%
7+
2.3%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over77.0%52.3%30.1%14.8%
Under23.0%47.7%69.9%85.2%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
32.4%
Over, even
19.9%
Under, odd
16.2%
Under, even
31.5%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
56.6%
Both teams to score: No
43.4%
Clean-sheet probability · Celta Vigo
27.5%
Clean-sheet probability · Union St. Gilloise
22.8%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Celta Vigo22.8%33.7%24.9%18.6%
Union St. Gilloise27.5%35.5%22.9%14.1%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
24.2%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
2.1%
Draw
D/H
14.4%
D/D
15.6%
D/A
11.8%
Away
A/H
2.5%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
18.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Celta Vigo

Galician club from Vigo, a regular La Liga side known for attacking, possession-minded football and its academy.

City
Vigo, Spain
Stadium
Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
Founded
1923
Head coach
Claudio Giráldez

Union St. Gilloise

A historic Brussels club that has been back in the Belgian top flight since 2021 and is now a regular contender in the Belgian Pro League and in Europe.

City
Brussels, Belgium
Stadium
Stade Joseph Mariën
Founded
1897
Head coach
David Hubert

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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