Champions League · Matchday 4
FC Porto vs Napoli prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-04
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Porto win 59%, draw 23%, Napoli win 18%; the final score was 4:1.
Full time: FC Porto 4-1 Napoli. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "FC Porto" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | FC Porto | 59.4% | most likely |
| Correct score | 4:1 | 3.1% | #13 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 9.6% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 18.7% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- FC Porto
- 59%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Napoli
- 41%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:0
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 38%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 56%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours FC Porto (59%); expected goals FC Porto 1.95 – 0.98 Napoli.
- 2.93 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 56%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (38%).
- Last five: FC Porto WWLLW (3 wins), Napoli LWDWL (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · FC Porto
- 1.95
- Expected goals · Napoli
- 0.98
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 44% / 39% / 17%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Porto | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 7.1% | 10.4% | 82.5% |
| Home -2 | 17.5% | 18.4% | 64.2% |
| Home -1≈ | 35.8% | 23.6% | 40.6% |
| Home +1 | 82.0% | 11.6% | 6.3% |
| Home +2 | 93.7% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Home +3 | 98.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.9%
- 2:010.1%
- 2:19.9%
- 3:06.6%
- 3:16.5%
- 3:23.2%
- 4:03.2%
- 4:13.1%
- 4:21.5%
- 5:01.2%
- 5:11.2%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.2%
- 0:05.9%
- 1:110.7%
- 2:24.9%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:14.7%
- 0:22.6%
- 1:25.0%
- 0:30.8%
- 1:31.6%
- 2:31.6%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.4%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.5% | 56.0% | 33.7% | 17.3% |
| Under | 20.5% | 44.0% | 66.3% | 82.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.2%
- Over, even
- 21.9%
- Under, odd
- 14.6%
- Under, even
- 29.3%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · FC Porto
- 37.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Napoli
- 14.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 14.3% | 27.8% | 27.0% | 30.9% |
| Napoli | 37.5% | 36.8% | 18.0% | 7.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 37.6% | H/D 4.6% | H/A 1.3% |
| Draw | D/H 18.7% | D/D 13.3% | D/A 6.9% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 4.6% | A/A 9.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
FC Porto
One of Portugal's 'Big Three' clubs, Porto won the 2025–26 Primeira Liga title.
- City
- Porto, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio do Dragão
- Founded
- 1893
- Head coach
- Francesco Farioli
Napoli
Southern Italy's biggest club, four-time Serie A champions (most recently 2024–25) and 2025–26 runners-up, known for its Maradona legacy and passionate fan base.
- City
- Naples, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
- Founded
- 1926
- Head coach
- Massimiliano Allegri
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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