EFL Championship Β· Matchday 14
Portsmouth vs Swansea City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Portsmouth win 37%, draw 29%, Swansea City win 34%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Portsmouth 3-1 Swansea City. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Portsmouth" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Portsmouth | 37.4% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 3.5% | #10 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 13.1% | #4 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.9% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 22.0% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Portsmouth / Swansea City
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Swansea City
- 63%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 24%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 55%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Portsmouth 37%, draw 29%, Swansea City 34% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.47 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 45%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (22%).
- Last five: Portsmouth DWDWW (3 wins), Swansea City WLLWW (3 wins).
- A 29% draw probability is on the high side β the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Portsmouth
- 1.27
- Expected goals Β· Swansea City
- 1.20
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 29% / 44% / 27%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Portsmouth | Draw | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.6% | 4.2% | 94.2% |
| Home -2 | 5.8% | 11.1% | 83.1% |
| Home -1β | 16.9% | 20.4% | 62.6% |
| Home +1 | 66.4% | 19.1% | 14.5% |
| Home +2 | 85.5% | 9.8% | 4.7% |
| Home +3 | 95.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.9%
- 2:06.9%
- 2:18.2%
- 3:02.9%
- 3:13.5%
- 3:22.1%
- 4:00.9%
- 4:11.1%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:09.4%
- 1:113.8%
- 2:24.9%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.2%
- 0:26.0%
- 1:27.7%
- 0:32.4%
- 1:33.1%
- 2:32.0%
- 0:40.7%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71.6% | 44.9% | 23.6% | 10.5% |
| Under | 28.4% | 55.1% | 76.4% | 89.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 28.8%
- Over, even
- 16.1%
- Under, odd
- 19.0%
- Under, even
- 36.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 51.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 48.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Portsmouth
- 30.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Swansea City
- 28.0%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 28.0% | 35.6% | 22.7% | 13.7% |
| Swansea City | 30.2% | 36.2% | 21.6% | 12.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.0% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 13.4% | D/D 18.2% | D/A 12.3% |
| Away | A/H 1.9% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 19.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Portsmouth
Nicknamed Pompey, this south-coast club plays in the EFL Championship after winning League One in 2023β24, under head coach John Mousinho, who favours attacking football.
- City
- Portsmouth, England
- Stadium
- Fratton Park
- Founded
- 1898
- Head coach
- John Mousinho
Swansea City
A Welsh club known as the Swans, who play in the English EFL Championship and have a history of possession-based football.
- City
- Swansea, Wales
- Stadium
- Swansea.com Stadium
- Founded
- 1912
- Head coach
- Vitor Matos
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: EFL Championship β