La Liga · Matchday 11
Villarreal vs Espanyol prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Villarreal win 69%, draw 18%, Espanyol win 13%; the final score was 0:1.
Full time: Villarreal 0-1 Espanyol. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Villarreal" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Espanyol | 13.1% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:1 | 2.9% | #14 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 10.4% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 33.1% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/A | 4.9% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Villarreal
- 69%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Villarreal
- 47%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:0 / 2:1
- 19%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 47%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 67%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Villarreal (69%); expected goals Villarreal 2.46 – 0.99 Espanyol.
- Goals look likely: 3.45 expected in total, 67% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (47%).
- Last five: Villarreal WDLWW (3 wins), Espanyol LLDLL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Villarreal
- 2.46
- Expected goals · Espanyol
- 0.99
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 52% / 33% / 15%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 13.2% | 14.0% | 72.8% |
| Home -2 | 27.2% | 20.2% | 52.6% |
| Home -1≈ | 47.4% | 21.8% | 30.8% |
| Home +1 | 86.9% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Home +2 | 95.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Home +3 | 98.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.5%
- 2:09.6%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:07.9%
- 3:17.8%
- 3:23.9%
- 4:04.8%
- 4:14.8%
- 4:22.4%
- 5:02.4%
- 5:12.3%
- 5:21.2%
- Other home win5.2%
- 0:03.5%
- 1:18.1%
- 2:24.7%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:12.9%
- 0:21.6%
- 1:23.8%
- 0:30.5%
- 1:31.3%
- 2:31.6%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.3%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.1% | 66.9% | 45.2% | 26.4% |
| Under | 13.9% | 33.1% | 54.8% | 73.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.0%
- Over, even
- 27.9%
- Under, odd
- 10.4%
- Under, even
- 22.7%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Villarreal
- 37.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Espanyol
- 8.6%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 8.6% | 21.1% | 25.9% | 44.5% |
| Espanyol | 37.1% | 36.8% | 18.2% | 7.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 46.6% | H/D 4.0% | H/A 1.1% |
| Draw | D/H 18.9% | D/D 9.7% | D/A 4.9% |
| Away | A/H 3.7% | A/D 4.0% | A/A 7.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Villarreal
Nicknamed the Yellow Submarine, this small-town club from Castellón finished third in La Liga in 2025–26 and is back in the Champions League.
- City
- Villarreal, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio de la Cerámica
- Founded
- 1923
- Head coach
- Iñigo Pérez
Espanyol
Catalan club known as the Pericos, who wear blue and white and play at the RCDE Stadium in Cornellà de Llobregat. They finished 11th in La Liga in 2025–26, and Eder Sarabia took over as head coach in October 2026.
- City
- Barcelona, Spain
- Stadium
- RCDE Stadium
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Eder Sarabia
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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