Eredivisie Β· Matchday 10

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Sparta Rotterdam
WDLLD
1 - 2
HT 1-2
Ajax
WDDWW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sparta Rotterdam win 18%, draw 20%, Ajax win 63%; the final score was 1:2.

Full time: Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Ajax" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultAjax62.6%most likely
Correct score1:29.5%most likely
Total goals3 goals21.4%most likely
Over/under 2.5Over 2.569.1%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/A41.1%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Ajax
63%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
Ajax
41%
Correct scoreHit
1:2 / 1:1
18%
Total goalsHit
3 / 4 goals
40%
Half-time / full-timeHit
A/A
41%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
69%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Ajax (63%); expected goals Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 – 2.36 Ajax.
  • Goals look likely: 3.57 expected in total, 69% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:2 (9%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (41%).
  • Last five: Sparta Rotterdam WDLLD (1 wins), Ajax WDDWW (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Sparta Rotterdam 18%Draw 20%Ajax 63%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Sparta Rotterdam
1.20
Expected goals Β· Ajax
2.36
Most likely score
1:2 (9%)
Half-time result
18% / 34% / 47%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Sparta RotterdamDrawAjax
Home -30.5%1.6%97.9%
Home -22.1%4.8%93.1%
Home -16.9%10.6%82.5%
Home +1β‰ˆ37.4%21.3%41.3%
Home +258.7%18.6%22.7%
Home +377.3%12.1%10.5%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Sparta Rotterdam Β· Home
  • 1:02.8%
  • 2:02.0%
  • 2:14.8%
  • 3:00.8%
  • 3:11.9%
  • 3:22.3%
  • 4:00.2%
  • 4:10.6%
  • 4:20.7%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.1%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.9%
Draw
  • 0:03.4%
  • 1:18.6%
  • 2:25.7%
  • 3:31.8%
  • Other draw0.4%
Ajax Β· Away
  • 0:16.1%
  • 0:27.9%
  • 1:29.5%
  • 0:36.2%
  • 1:37.5%
  • 2:34.5%
  • 0:43.7%
  • 1:44.4%
  • 2:42.7%
  • 0:51.7%
  • 1:52.1%
  • 2:51.3%
  • Other away win5.1%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
3.4%
1
9.0%
2
18.5%
3
21.4%
4
19.0%
5
13.6%
6
8.1%
7+
7.0%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over87.6%69.1%47.7%28.7%
Under12.4%30.9%52.3%71.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
39.9%
Over, even
29.2%
Under, odd
9.0%
Under, even
21.9%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
63.9%
Both teams to score: No
36.1%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Sparta Rotterdam
9.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Ajax
30.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Sparta Rotterdam30.1%36.1%21.7%12.1%
Ajax9.4%22.2%26.3%42.1%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
9.7%
H/D
4.8%
H/A
3.9%
Draw
D/H
6.3%
D/D
10.3%
D/A
17.7%
Away
A/H
1.5%
A/D
4.8%
A/A
41.1%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Sparta Rotterdam

Rotterdam's oldest professional club, nicknamed the Castle Lords, who play at the 'Het Kasteel' stadium and finished 10th in the Eredivisie in 2025–26.

City
Rotterdam, Netherlands
Stadium
Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Founded
1888
Head coach
Rogier Meijer

Ajax

Amsterdam's record-champion club, known for its youth academy and possession-based attacking football.

City
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Stadium
Johan Cruijff ArenA
Founded
1900
Head coach
MΓ­chel

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

Market & China Sports Lottery guide β†’ Β· League page: Eredivisie β†’