Bundesliga Β· Matchday 7
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): SC Freiburg win 16%, draw 18%, Bayern Munich win 67%; the final score was 1:3.
Full time: SC Freiburg 1-3 Bayern Munich. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Bayern Munich" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Bayern Munich | 66.8% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:3 | 7.8% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 19.5% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 45.4% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Bayern Munich
- 67%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Bayern Munich
- 46%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:2 / 1:3
- 17%
- Total goalsHit
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 45%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 73%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Bayern Munich (67%); expected goals SC Freiburg 1.22 β 2.60 Bayern Munich.
- Goals look likely: 3.82 expected in total, 73% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:2 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (45%).
- Last five: SC Freiburg LWDWW (3 wins), Bayern Munich WDWWD (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· SC Freiburg
- 1.22
- Expected goals Β· Bayern Munich
- 2.60
- Most likely score
- 1:2 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 17% / 31% / 51%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | SC Freiburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 98.1% |
| Home -2 | 1.9% | 4.2% | 94.0% |
| Home -1 | 6.0% | 9.6% | 84.4% |
| Home +1β | 33.2% | 20.7% | 46.1% |
| Home +2 | 53.9% | 19.1% | 27.0% |
| Home +3 | 73.0% | 13.5% | 13.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:02.4%
- 2:01.6%
- 2:14.2%
- 3:00.7%
- 3:11.7%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win1.0%
- 0:02.4%
- 1:17.2%
- 2:25.5%
- 3:31.9%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:15.4%
- 0:27.4%
- 1:29.0%
- 0:36.4%
- 1:37.8%
- 2:34.8%
- 0:44.2%
- 1:45.1%
- 2:43.1%
- 0:52.2%
- 1:52.7%
- 2:51.6%
- Other away win7.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 89.7% | 73.5% | 53.1% | 33.7% |
| Under | 10.3% | 26.5% | 46.9% | 66.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 41.6%
- Over, even
- 31.9%
- Under, odd
- 7.8%
- Under, even
- 18.7%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 65.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 34.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· SC Freiburg
- 7.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Bayern Munich
- 29.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 29.5% | 36.0% | 22.0% | 12.5% |
| Bayern Munich | 7.4% | 19.3% | 25.1% | 48.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 8.8% | H/D 4.4% | H/A 4.1% |
| Draw | D/H 5.4% | D/D 8.7% | D/A 17.3% |
| Away | A/H 1.4% | A/D 4.4% | A/A 45.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
SC Freiburg
A well-organised club from southwest Germany, known for its youth development and stable long-term planning, that finished 7th in the 2025β26 Bundesliga and reached the Europa League final.
- City
- Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
- Stadium
- Europa-Park Stadion
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Julian Schuster
Bayern Munich
Germany's most successful club and a perennial Bundesliga title contender, Bayern play a proactive, high-pressing attacking game under Vincent Kompany.
- City
- Munich, Germany
- Stadium
- Allianz Arena
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Vincent Kompany
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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