Eredivisie Β· Matchday 10

AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

AZ Alkmaar
DLWDW
0 - 2
HT 0-0
FC Twente
LDWWW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): AZ Alkmaar win 40%, draw 25%, FC Twente win 34%; the final score was 0:2.

Full time: AZ Alkmaar 0-2 FC Twente. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "AZ Alkmaar" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultFC Twente34.5%#2 of 3
Correct score0:24.7%#10 of 31
Total goals2 goals21.3%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.536.6%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/A11.6%#5 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
AZ Alkmaar / FC Twente
75%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
FC Twente
60%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
43%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
24%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
63%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: AZ Alkmaar 40%, draw 25%, FC Twente 34% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • Goals look likely: 3.27 expected in total, 63% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
  • Last five: AZ Alkmaar DLWDW (2 wins), FC Twente LDWWW (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

AZ Alkmaar 40%Draw 25%FC Twente 34%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Expected goals Β· FC Twente
1.56
Most likely score
1:1 (11%)
Half-time result
33% / 38% / 29%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2AZ AlkmaarDrawFC Twente
Home -33.2%5.9%90.9%
Home -29.1%12.4%78.5%
Home -1β‰ˆ21.5%19.0%59.5%
Home +165.5%17.3%17.2%
Home +282.8%10.4%6.7%
Home +393.3%4.5%2.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

AZ Alkmaar Β· Home
  • 1:05.5%
  • 2:05.5%
  • 2:18.7%
  • 3:03.1%
  • 3:14.9%
  • 3:23.8%
  • 4:01.3%
  • 4:12.1%
  • 4:21.6%
  • 5:00.5%
  • 5:10.7%
  • 5:20.6%
  • Other home win2.1%
Draw
  • 0:04.8%
  • 1:111.1%
  • 2:26.8%
  • 3:32.0%
  • Other draw0.4%
FC Twente Β· Away
  • 0:15.0%
  • 0:24.7%
  • 1:27.9%
  • 0:32.4%
  • 1:34.1%
  • 2:33.5%
  • 0:40.9%
  • 1:41.6%
  • 2:41.4%
  • 0:50.3%
  • 1:50.5%
  • 2:50.4%
  • Other away win1.7%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.8%
1
10.5%
2
21.3%
3
22.2%
4
18.1%
5
11.8%
6
6.4%
7+
4.9%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over84.7%63.4%41.3%23.2%
Under15.3%36.6%58.7%76.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
37.5%
Over, even
25.9%
Under, odd
10.5%
Under, even
26.1%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
65.7%
Both teams to score: No
34.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· AZ Alkmaar
20.9%
Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Twente
18.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
AZ Alkmaar18.2%31.0%26.4%24.4%
FC Twente20.9%32.7%25.6%20.7%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
24.3%
H/D
5.9%
H/A
2.6%
Draw
D/H
13.2%
D/D
13.3%
D/A
11.6%
Away
A/H
3.0%
A/D
5.9%
A/A
20.3%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie club from Alkmaar, two-time Dutch champions (1980–81, 2008–09), known for youth development; finished 7th in 2025–26 and now coached by Lee-Roy Echteld.

City
Alkmaar, Netherlands
Stadium
AFAS Stadion
Founded
1967
Head coach
Lee-Roy Echteld

FC Twente

Enschede-based Dutch club formed in 1965 and Eredivisie champions in 2010, which finished 4th in the Eredivisie in 2025–26.

City
Enschede, Netherlands
Stadium
De Grolsch Veste
Founded
1965

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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