{"version":"2026-05-29","reviewedAt":"2026-05-29","site":{"name":"GoalPulse","url":"https://goalpulse.io","scope":"Template for future informational World Cup 2026 probability modules. It is not an active public prediction model, odds feed, betting signal or automated trading/betting product."},"currentStatus":{"publicProbabilityCards":"not_launched","activeAutomatedForecastModel":false,"editorialPredictionArticles":"Allowed as clearly labelled editorial analysis when separated from confirmed fixture, venue, standings and rules facts.","launchCondition":"A completed model card, backtest, calibration report, source-diff gate and non-betting UX review must all be published before probability cards can appear on match, team or group pages."},"requiredModelIdentity":{"modelId":"","modelVersion":"","owner":"GoalPulse Editorial / data reviewer","status":"draft | shadow | public | retired","publishedAt":"","retiredAt":"","methodologyAsset":"/data/ai-decision-methodology.json","templateAsset":"/data/prediction-model-card-template.json"},"requiredDataWindow":{"trainingWindowStart":"","trainingWindowEnd":"","dataCutoff":"","fixtureGraphVersion":"","rulesVersion":"2026-05-29","excludedData":"Do not use bookmaker odds, affiliate feeds, private user identifiers, betting accounts or unauthorized scraping as model features.","sourceSnapshotEvidence":[]},"supportedOutputs":[{"id":"match_win_draw_loss_probability","allowedSurface":["match pages","group pages"],"requiredFields":["homeWin","draw","awayWin","confidenceInterval","modelVersion","updatedAt"],"displayBoundary":"Informational sports analysis only; never phrased as odds, picks, stakes or betting advice."},{"id":"qualification_probability","allowedSurface":["team pages","group pages","standings pages"],"requiredFields":["qualify","groupPositionDistribution","confidenceInterval","modelVersion","updatedAt"],"displayBoundary":"Scenario analysis only; canonical standings and FIFA rules override probability text."}],"requiredEvaluation":{"minimumBacktestRows":0,"metrics":["Brier Score","Log Loss","expected calibration error","calibration curve"],"calibration":["isotonic calibration or Platt scaling report","reliability bins","confidence interval method"],"comparisonBaselines":["FIFA ranking baseline","Elo baseline","Poisson or Dixon-Coles goals baseline"],"publishableOnlyIf":["model version is immutable","training window and cutoff are visible","Brier Score, Log Loss and calibration error are present","confidence intervals or uncertainty bands are displayed","source graph consistency gates pass on the same release"]},"requiredUserInterfaceGuardrails":["The module label must say informational probability or scenario analysis, not odds.","A visible link to /data/prediction-model-card-template.json or the completed model card must be present.","A visible link to /data/ai-decision-methodology.json must be present.","No betting advice, picks, tips, stake sizing or bankroll guidance.","No bookmaker names, betting-site URLs, app downloads, affiliate offers, arbitrage formulas or staking language.","Do not show probabilities if source graph, rules, schema or calibration receipts are stale."],"requiredOperationalGuardrails":{"killSwitches":["source_graph_mismatch","rules_version_mismatch","calibration_receipt_missing_or_stale","unsupported_betting_interpretation_reported","privacy_policy_or_analytics_boundary_violation"],"monitoring":["source diff status","schema consistency status","calibration freshness","user-facing copy review","risk-intent routing precision"],"analyticsBoundaryVersion":"2026-05-29"},"disallowedClaims":["guaranteed outcome","betting tip","odds recommendation","bookmaker ranking","staking advice","inside information","official FIFA forecast","live lineup certainty without source evidence"],"linkedEvidence":{"aiDecisionMethodologyVersion":"2026-05-29","aiDecisionMethodology":"/data/ai-decision-methodology.json","privacySafeAnalyticsSchema":"/data/privacy-safe-analytics-schema.json","releaseManifest":"/data/release-manifest.json","sourceMethodology":"/en/sources#ai-decision-methodology"}}