{"version":"2026-06-15-r78","reviewedAt":"2026-06-15","site":{"name":"GoalPulse","url":"https://goalpulse.io","scope":"Completed shadow-model card for the current offline World Cup 2026 win/draw/loss baseline. It is public methodology evidence only, not a public probability product, odds feed, betting signal or automated betting product."},"status":{"modelCardState":"shadow_complete_not_public_probability_launch","shadowModelStatus":"production_scheduled_private_shadow_baseline","publicProbabilityCards":"not_launched","activeAutomatedForecastModel":false,"publicPredictionClaimAllowed":false,"top3PredictionClaimAllowed":false,"reason":"The latest natural production cron has scored 8 immutable pre-kickoff snapshot rows across 16 finished matches. This remains below the public probability or Top3 prediction threshold. External benchmark and confidence-review receipts are also missing."},"modelIdentity":{"modelId":"goalpulse-offline-calibratedElo-wdl-baseline","modelVersion":"2026-06-17-r78","primaryModelId":"calibratedElo","finalCandidateId":"compact-073-calibratedElo","family":"Rolling Elo, calibrated Elo, Poisson, Dixon-Coles low-score correction and ensemble comparison with tuning-split ranking and later evaluation guard.","owner":"GoalPulse Editorial / data reviewer","status":"shadow","methodologyAsset":"/data/ai-decision-methodology.json","templateAsset":"/data/prediction-model-card-template.json"},"dataWindow":{"historyStart":"1970-01-01","holdoutStart":"2024-01-01","evaluationStart":"2025-07-01","cutoffDate":"2026-06-15","trainingRows":38900,"tuningRows":1638,"evaluationRows":902,"fullHoldoutRows":2540,"historyRowsRead":49472,"rulesVersion":"2026-06-14","leakageBoundary":"Historical forecasts are scored only after ratings and goal-rate state from before each row. Current-tournament replay rows are diagnostics and do not count as immutable forecast proof.","excludedFeatures":["bookmaker odds","betting market prices","private user data","post-kickoff incidents","post-match labels before forecast generation"]},"modelParameters":{"initialRating":1500,"baseK":34,"homeAdvantage":80,"drawFloor":0.08,"drawScale":650,"drawPrior":0.2366,"poissonShrinkage":12,"poissonMaxGoals":10,"dixonColesRho":-0.04,"ensembleEloWeight":0.55,"calibrationPower":1.16},"evaluation":{"split":"later_evaluation","rows":902,"brierScore":0.5017,"logLoss":0.8628,"expectedCalibrationError":0.0284,"exactAccuracy":0.622,"baselineUniformBrierScore":0.6667,"baselineUniformLogLoss":1.0986,"confidenceIntervals":{"brierScore":{"p05":0.4771,"p50":0.5017,"p95":0.5228},"logLoss":{"p05":0.8252,"p50":0.863,"p95":0.8947},"exactAccuracy":{"p05":0.5987,"p50":0.6208,"p95":0.6498},"expectedCalibrationError":{"p05":0.0285,"p50":0.042,"p95":0.0608}},"comparisonBaselines":{"elo":{"rows":902,"brierScore":0.5036,"logLoss":0.8667,"expectedCalibrationError":0.0405},"calibratedElo":{"rows":902,"brierScore":0.5017,"logLoss":0.8628,"expectedCalibrationError":0.0284},"uniform":{"rows":902,"brierScore":0.6667,"logLoss":1.0986}}},"tuningSelection":{"candidateCount":405,"parameterCandidateCount":81,"selectedTuningCandidate":"compact-075-ensemble","acceptedCandidate":"compact-073-calibratedElo","acceptedCandidateRank":48,"evaluationGuard":"Candidates are ranked on the tuning split, then accepted only if the later evaluation split does not regress on Brier Score or Log Loss and stays within the ECE tolerance.","rejectedBeforeAcceptance":["compact-075-ensemble","compact-078-ensemble","compact-081-ensemble"]},"currentTournamentReplay":{"rows":16,"requiredRowsBeforeAdaptiveSwitch":16,"primaryModelId":"calibratedElo","immutablePreKickoffRows":8,"boundary":"8 immutable pre-kickoff production snapshot rows can now be scored. Retrospective replay rows remain diagnostics only, and the sample is still too small for adaptive switching or public prediction claims."},"immutableSnapshotStatus":{"enabled":true,"snapshotDir":".planning/prediction-snapshots","windowHours":72,"expectedWindowMatches":12,"expectedMatchIds":["m017","m018","m019","m020","m021","m022","m023","m024","m025","m026","m027","m028"],"coveredMatches":12,"adaptiveCandidateCoveredMatches":12,"coverageReady":true,"adaptiveCandidateCoverageReady":true,"latestPreKickoffMatches":20,"latestPreKickoffMatchIds":["m009","m010","m011","m012","m013","m014","m015","m016","m017","m018","m019","m020","m021","m022","m023"],"snapshotFiles":876,"scoredRows":8,"adaptiveScoredRows":8,"boundary":"Coverage proves pre-kickoff snapshots exist for the current window. Accuracy proof has 8 immutable scored rows, still below the release threshold for public probability cards or Top3 prediction claims."},"productionReceipts":{"localScoreSyncBaseline":".planning/ai-prediction-baseline-2026-06-15-current-goal-r72-after-m010-score-sync.json","localBaseline":".planning/ai-prediction-baseline-2026-06-15-current-goal-r78-calibration-power-116.json","productionManualBaseline":".planning/ai-prediction-baseline-production-r78-manual-20260615T004000Z.json","productionCronBaseline":"/opt/goalpulse/ai-pipeline/logs/cycles.jsonl#20260616T180001Z","productionCronCycleSummary":"/opt/goalpulse/ai-pipeline/logs/cycles.jsonl#20260616T180001Z","productionScoreSyncReceipt":"/opt/goalpulse/ai-pipeline/logs/sync-match-results-apply-20260614T2233Z-r72-m010.json","productionCronVersion":"2026-06-17-r78"},"launchBlockers":["Only 8 scored immutable pre-kickoff production snapshot rows exist so far.","Current-tournament replay diagnostics are still 10/16 rows and cannot support adaptive model switching.","No external public benchmark or competitor leaderboard receipt.","No independent confidence-interval review receipt.","No public probability UI review has been approved."],"requiredBeforePublicProbabilityCards":["scored immutable pre-kickoff snapshot rows meet the release threshold","external benchmark receipts are imported and validated","source graph, standings rules, schema and data consistency gates pass on the same release","non-betting public probability UI copy is reviewed","kill switch conditions are wired for stale calibration, source mismatch and betting-context drift"],"guardrails":["Do not describe this shadow model as odds, picks, betting advice, stake sizing or a guarantee.","Do not publish match-level probability cards from this model card alone.","Do not claim industry Top3 prediction quality until immutable snapshot scoring and external benchmark receipts prove it.","Do not use bookmaker names, affiliate links, betting-market prices or private user data as model features."],"linkedEvidence":{"aiDecisionMethodologyVersion":"2026-06-15","aiDecisionMethodology":"/data/ai-decision-methodology.json","predictionModelCardTemplateVersion":"2026-06-15","predictionModelCardTemplate":"/data/prediction-model-card-template.json","privacySafeAnalyticsVersion":"2026-06-15","privacySafeAnalyticsSchema":"/data/privacy-safe-analytics-schema.json","releaseManifest":"/data/release-manifest.json","sourceMethodology":"/en/sources#ai-decision-methodology"}}