{"version":"2026-05-29","reviewedAt":"2026-05-29","site":{"name":"GoalPulse","url":"https://goalpulse.io","productBoundary":"Independent World Cup 2026 information product. AI and models may support explanations, summarization, routing and future probability modules, but GoalPulse is not an official FIFA property and does not provide betting advice."},"currentPublicState":{"predictions":"Editorial prediction articles only; not a live automated probability product.","modelCardTemplate":"A public prediction model-card template is available at /data/prediction-model-card-template.json, but it is a launch gate rather than an active model.","analytics":"No third-party advertising trackers. First-party or aggregated analytics must be privacy-reviewed before deployment.","analyticsSchema":"A public privacy-safe event schema is available for future measurement design, but it is specification-only and does not enable tracking by itself.","tacticalVideoAi":"Not in MVP scope because reliable tactical/video analysis requires licensed event, tracking or video annotation data."},"adoptionVerdict":{"adoptedNow":[{"id":"single_fact_graph_rules_consistency","rationale":"The Pro review correctly identified trust consistency as the first constraint. GoalPulse treats tournament rules, entity IDs, times, venues, JSON-LD and localized copy as one release gate.","publicSurface":["/data/world-cup-2026.json","/data/release-manifest.json","/en/sources#ai-decision-methodology","/data/ai-decision-methodology.json"]},{"id":"privacy_safe_measurement_spec","rationale":"The Pro review correctly identified that search growth and product iteration need measurement, but collection must remain first-party, minimal and documented before launch.","publicSurface":["/data/privacy-safe-analytics-schema.json","/en/privacy"]},{"id":"prediction_product_guardrails","rationale":"Editorial forecasts can remain public, but automated probability cards must wait for a model card, calibration, backtesting and a non-betting display boundary.","publicSurface":["/en/sources#ai-decision-methodology","/data/ai-decision-methodology.json","/data/prediction-model-card-template.json","/en/news/predictions-tournament-forecast#prediction-boundary"]}],"prepareWithReceipts":[{"id":"probability_cards","launchCondition":"Publish only after model version, training window, Brier Score, Log Loss, calibration error, confidence intervals and source-diff gates are recorded.","firstReleaseTarget":"match, team and group pages as informational sports analysis, not odds or betting recommendations."},{"id":"grounded_multilingual_summaries","launchCondition":"Use template slots and retrieval-grounded drafts with citation anchors, unsupported-claim checks and localized review before publication.","firstReleaseTarget":"facts, match, group, team and source pages."},{"id":"next_best_content","launchCondition":"Enable only after the privacy-safe event schema is deployed with retention, opt-out and aggregation controls.","firstReleaseTarget":"related matches, teams, groups, stadiums, sources and articles."}],"deferUntilLicensedData":[{"id":"tactical_video_ai","rationale":"TacticAI or SoccerNet-style tactical/video modules require licensed event, tracking or video annotation data and are not a credible MVP on schedule/ranking data alone."}]},"singleFactGraph":{"canonicalAssets":["/data/world-cup-2026.json","/data/ai-citation-map.json","/data/keyword-intent-map.json","/data/football-betting-keywords-zh.json","/data/privacy-safe-analytics-schema.json","/data/prediction-model-card-template.json","/data/release-manifest.json"],"ruleSource":{"reviewedAt":"2026-05-29","groupTiebreakerOrder":["points","overall goal difference","overall goals scored","head-to-head points","head-to-head goal difference","head-to-head goals scored","fair-play points","drawing of lots"],"thirdPlaceOrder":["points","overall goal difference","overall goals scored","fair-play points","drawing of lots"],"boundary":"FIFA ranking may be used as a pre-tournament display baseline, but it is not an official group tiebreaker."}},"proposedAiDecisionModules":[{"id":"source_conflict_detection","status":"recommended_p0","purpose":"Detect inconsistencies between source snapshots, pages, JSON-LD, feeds, llms assets and localized copy before release.","firstModels":["deterministic rules","source diff scoring","optional anomaly score"],"requiredReceipts":["zero critical consistency mismatches","source snapshot diff","release manifest update"]},{"id":"match_and_qualification_probabilities","status":"not_public_until_model_card","purpose":"Show informational win/draw/loss and qualification probabilities on match, team and group pages.","firstModels":["Elo baseline","Poisson or Dixon-Coles goals model","isotonic or Platt calibration"],"requiredReceipts":["completed model card","model version","training window","Brier score","Log Loss","calibration error","confidence intervals"],"template":"/data/prediction-model-card-template.json"},{"id":"retrieval_grounded_summaries","status":"recommended_after_fact_graph_gates","purpose":"Generate multilingual summaries grounded in canonical facts, source methodology and citation anchors.","firstModels":["template slots","retrieval-grounded LLM draft","human review for published editorial"],"requiredReceipts":["citation coverage","unsupported-claim check","localized review status"]},{"id":"next_best_content","status":"requires_privacy_safe_events","purpose":"Rank the next match, team, group, article or source page a reader is likely to need.","firstModels":["rule-based candidates","BM25 or embedding retrieval","LightGBMRanker when enough anonymous events exist"],"requiredReceipts":["documented event schema","opt-out/retention policy","search success and next-click metrics"]}],"referenceBenchmarks":[{"id":"structured_tournament_forecasting","priority":"p0_reference","sources":["March Machine Learning Mania","M5 Forecasting Accuracy","M5 Forecasting Uncertainty"],"applicableModules":["match_and_qualification_probabilities","content_demand_forecasting"],"transferablePattern":"Start from transparent baselines, feature engineering, calibration, uncertainty reporting and backtests before publishing model outputs.","notForCurrentClaims":"These references do not prove GoalPulse forecast accuracy; they define the evaluation and model-card expectations required before public probability cards."},{"id":"recommendation_ranking","priority":"p1_reference","sources":["OTTO Recommender System","H&M Personalized Fashion Recommendations","Google Analytics Customer Revenue Prediction"],"applicableModules":["next_best_content","search_success_reranking","return_visit_value_prediction"],"transferablePattern":"Use candidate generation, entity embeddings or lexical recall, reranking, business rules and online next-click metrics rather than a single free-form model.","notForCurrentClaims":"Recommendation ranking requires privacy-reviewed first-party or aggregated interaction events before training or personalization."},{"id":"source_anomaly_detection","priority":"p0_reference","sources":["DataFountain customer electricity anomaly analysis","source snapshot diff rules"],"applicableModules":["source_conflict_detection","release_regression_detection"],"transferablePattern":"Combine deterministic source-field rules with optional anomaly scores to flag schedule, venue, rules, schema or localization drift before publication.","notForCurrentClaims":"Anomaly detection is a release-quality gate, not a public prediction or ranking signal."},{"id":"football_event_and_action_value","priority":"p2_reference","sources":["StatsBomb Open Data","Wyscout public event dataset paper","socceraction","VAEP","expected threat"],"applicableModules":["post_match_action_explainer","team_style_profile"],"transferablePattern":"Event-level data can support action-value explanations after licensing, source scope and methodology are documented.","notForCurrentClaims":"GoalPulse must not imply event-level tactical coverage unless the relevant event data license and source receipts exist."},{"id":"tactical_video_ai","priority":"deferred_reference","sources":["SoccerNet","SoccerNet-V3","TacticAI","Metrica Sports sample-data"],"applicableModules":["tactical_video_ai"],"transferablePattern":"Video, tracking and geometric-deep-learning methods are long-term references for tactical analysis, not a schedule-data MVP.","notForCurrentClaims":"No tactical/video AI claim may be published without licensed video or tracking data, benchmark evaluation and human review."},{"id":"benchmark_infrastructure","priority":"community_reference","sources":["Kaggle","DrivenData","Zindi","AIcrowd","Codabench","EvalAI","Tianchi","DataFountain","HeyWhale"],"applicableModules":["public_benchmark_design","model_evaluation_lifecycle"],"transferablePattern":"If GoalPulse hosts a future challenge, use reproducible submissions, fixed data splits, hidden tests, code or artifact receipts and post-competition deployment review.","notForCurrentClaims":"Platform references are planning inputs only; they do not create external authority until a public challenge or cited dataset exists."}],"implementationPhases":[{"phase":"p0_trust_and_feedback","target":"Before public AI outputs","deliverables":["single fact graph consistency checks","source conflict detection","privacy-safe analytics approval path","model-card template for future forecasts","public prediction model-card template asset"]},{"phase":"p1_structured_ai_product","target":"After P0 gates and enough source evidence","deliverables":["informational probability cards with calibration receipts","grounded multilingual summaries","next-best-content ranking with privacy-safe events","AI search answer box with citation anchors and kill switch"]},{"phase":"p2_licensed_event_or_video_ai","target":"Only after data-license and benchmark receipts","deliverables":["event-level action-value explanations","team style profiles","tactical or video analysis modules with human review"]}],"dataArchitecture":{"principle":"Models, summaries and recommendations cannot bypass the canonical tournament graph.","layers":[{"id":"fact_layer","tables":["dim_team","dim_match","dim_group","dim_venue","fact_source_snapshot"],"uses":["entity identity","localized canonical URLs","source diffing","schema consistency"]},{"id":"feature_layer","tables":["feat_team_form_window","feat_match_context"],"uses":["team strength features","rest days","venue context","timezone impact","lineup status once sourced"]},{"id":"label_layer","tables":["label_match_outcome","label_qualification_state"],"uses":["supervised forecast evaluation","qualification probability backtests","post-match calibration"]},{"id":"interaction_layer","tables":["event_search","event_click","event_module_view"],"uses":["search success","zero-result detection","article-to-entity routing","A/B tests"]},{"id":"semantic_layer","tables":["doc_chunk","citation_anchor","disallowed_claim"],"uses":["retrieval-grounded answers","citation coverage","unsupported-claim detection"]}]},"evaluationRequirements":{"forecasts":["Brier Score","Log Loss","calibration curve","expected calibration error"],"recommendations":["next-click rate","NDCG","search success rate","zero-result rate"],"summaries":["citation coverage","fact-error rate","unsupported-claim rate","human review pass rate"],"anomalies":["precision","recall","false alarm rate","mean time to correction"]},"experimentPlan":[{"id":"probability_card_mvp","control":"current match, team and group pages without public automated probabilities","treatment":"informational win/draw/loss and qualification probability card with explanation, uncertainty and methodology link","primaryMetrics":["session depth","return_visit_bucket","entity_click rate"],"safetyMetrics":["forecast calibration error","unsupported betting interpretation reports"],"killSwitch":"Hide the module if calibration receipts are stale, source graph gates fail or copy is interpreted as betting advice."},{"id":"grounded_summary_mvp","control":"static direct-answer and editorial blocks","treatment":"template-first multilingual summary grounded in fact graph and citation anchors","primaryMetrics":["article-to-entity click rate","scroll_depth_bucket","language_switch success"],"safetyMetrics":["fact-error rate","citation coverage","human review pass rate"],"killSwitch":"Disable generated copy if citation coverage drops or unsupported-claim checks fail."},{"id":"ai_search_answer_box","control":"traditional SearchResultsPage results list","treatment":"canonical answer box plus entity links for safe factual queries; risk-intent queries route to non-betting safety pages","primaryMetrics":["search success rate","zero-result rate","next-click rate"],"safetyMetrics":["risk-intent safe-routing precision","disallowed-response incidents"],"killSwitch":"Fallback to search results if answer grounding, risk routing or locale matching fails."}],"riskRegister":[{"id":"data_conflict","risk":"Source updates can create mismatches between visible pages, structured data, feeds and machine-readable assets.","mitigation":"Run single fact graph consistency checks, source snapshot diffs and release manifest gates before publication."},{"id":"probability_overconfidence","risk":"Forecast cards can look more certain than the model evidence supports.","mitigation":"Require calibration, confidence intervals, model versioning, backtests and uncertainty wording."},{"id":"generated_summary_hallucination","risk":"LLM summaries can invent injuries, lineups, broadcaster rights or tactical claims.","mitigation":"Start with template slots, require retrieval anchors and block unsupported claims."},{"id":"betting_context_drift","risk":"Users or answer engines may interpret probability and odds vocabulary as betting advice.","mitigation":"Keep probability copy informational, preserve odds-term safety routing and reject bookmaker/app/affiliate recommendations."},{"id":"licensed_data_gap","risk":"Video and tactical analysis claims would exceed the currently disclosed public data scope.","mitigation":"Defer tactical/video AI until licensed event, tracking or annotation data exists."}],"guardrails":["No probability, forecast or summary may override the canonical tournament graph.","No generated answer may claim official FIFA status, ticket availability, broadcaster rights or live lineup certainty without a source anchor.","No AI module may recommend betting sites, bookmaker rankings, app downloads, affiliate offers, arbitrage formulas, lottery purchase paths or gambling tactics.","Any future analytics must be first-party or aggregated, privacy-reviewed, documented in the privacy policy and avoid third-party advertising trackers by default."]}